Analyzing NFL predictions and statistics
Inside the Numbers (ITN) has posted its rankings for week 5 of the 2009 NFL Season.
Inside the Numbers’ predictions for 2009:
Units (season): +3.12
Units (last week): +0.14
Against the Spread (season): 30-32
Against the Spread (last week): 7-7
Straight up (season): 46-16
Straight up (last week): 13-1
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +3.12
Units (last week): +0.14
Against the Spread (season): 30-32
Against the Spread (last week): 7-7
Straight up (season): 46-16
Straight up (last week): 13-1
Game 1 – Vikings at Rams
Vegas Line: Vikings by 10
Our Line: Vikings by 7
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Cowboys at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 8.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 2
Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: Dallas has not been the best road team so far this year, giving up 21 points to the win-less Buccaneers in week one, and also losing last week on the road in Denver. Kansas City is still struggling to play as a unit this year, but they still aren’t an easy knockout at home. Dallas is still dealing with a few injuries as RB Felix Jones, and WR Roy Williams are both expected to miss this Sunday’s game. There are a few Dallas -9 lines popping up, and you should feel free to take advantage.
Game 3 – Redskins at Panthers
Vegas Line: Panthers by 3.5
Our Line: Redskins by 2
Our Play: Redskins to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 4 – Buccaneers at Eagles
Vegas Line: Eagles by 15
Our Line: Eagles by 8
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: First off, you should be worried about any team being able to cover a two TD+ spread, even if they are hosting the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We know the Eagles are coming off of a bye and have a healthier QB McNabb and RB Westbrook, but teams coming off a bye don’t historically perform as well as people think. Tampa Bay will be looking to run the ball frequently, and the Eagles run defense hasn’t been as boorish as they were in recent years. Look for Philadelphia to have firm control of the game, but for Tampa Bay to move the ball well enough to stay within two touchdowns of the lead.
Game 5 – Raiders at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 15.5
Our Line: Giants by 10
Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Browns at Bills
Vegas Line: Bills by 6
Our Line: Bills by 6
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – Bengals at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 8.5
Our Line: Ravens by 1
Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: We have been a big fan of Baltimore this year, and usually are on their side to cover. But this line is failing to give credit to a pretty good Cincinnati team. The Bengals defense is actually allowing fewer points than the Ravens, and you should be taking that into strong consideration with this line. Cincinnati already has a good win on the road at Green Bay, and should threaten to pick up another one this weekend. Bet them with confidence.
Game 8 – Steelers at Lions
Vegas Line: Steelers by 10.5
Our Line: Steelers by 1
Our Play: Lions to cover (1.25 units)
Spin: Pittsburgh ran all over San Diego last week, racking up close to 200 yards on the ground. That is nothing new for San Diego, who has allowed over 125 yards rushing on defense in all of their games this year. While Detroit isn’t nearly as bad that on defense, and have played quite well at home this year. Pittsburgh has yet to win on the road, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati. Even if Daunte Culpepper starts for Detroit at QB, we really like their chances of covering 10pts and change at home.
Game 9 – Falcons at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 2.5
Our Line: 49ers by 7
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Patriots at Broncos
Vegas Line: Patriots by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 7
Our Play: Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)
Spin: Early in the year we rode the New York Jets bandwagon, as the public and Vegas vastly underestimated their capabilities. The same now applies to the Denver Broncos. We really liked them last week against Dallas, and like them even more at home against New England. Denver’s well rounded defense should have success containing Brady and Moss, and will likely create a turnover or two to aid their team’s cause. In New England’s one road trip this year they managed to put up only 9 points on the board, and we are looking for a similar performance here. This is our game of the week.
Game 11 – Texans at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 5.5
Our Line: Cardinals by 2
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Jaguars at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Line not available yet
Our Line: Jaguars by 2
Our Play:
Spin:
Game 13 – Colts at Titans
Vegas Line: Colts by 3.5
Our Line: Colts by 3
Our Play: Titans to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 14 – Jets at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Jets by 1.5
Our Line: Dolphins by 1
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 15 – N/A
Vegas Line:
Our Line:
Our Play:
Spin:
Game 16 – N/A
Vegas Line:
Our Line:
Our Play:
Spin:
SUMMARY
Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)
Lions to cover (1.25 units)
Bengals to cover (0.75 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)
Redskins to cover (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Texans to cover (0.25 units)
Total Units: 6.25 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +2.98
Units (last week): +0.69
Against the Spread (season): 23-25
Against the Spread (last week): 6-10
Straight up (season): 33-15
Straight up (last week): 11-5
Game 1 – Raiders at Texans
Vegas Line: Texans by 9.5
Our Line: Texans by 1
Our Play: Raiders to cover (1.0 units)
Spin: Houston has been all over the place this year, and can hardly be considered locks to win almost any game. Taking that into account, we certainly don’t think there is value in them covering almost 10 points. The match-ups in this game are fairly volatile as well. Houston can pass the ball very well, but Oakland can defend the pass. Houston can’t run the ball, but Oakland can’t defend the run. It all amounts to a sketchy line for Houston to cover, and you should for once feel confident in putting some of your money on the Raiders.
Game 2 – Titans at Jaguars
Vegas Line: Titans by 3
Our Line: Jaguars by 4
Our Play: Jaguars to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: Wow, does faith die hard in the NFL. People are still big believers in the Tennessee Titans of 2008. Here is some info on the Tennessee Titans of 2009 (i.e. the team that matters): 20th in Passing Offense, 19th in Scoring Offense, 29th in Passing Defense, and a dreary 23rd in Scoring Defense. Yes the Jaguars aren’t exactly exciting to look at, but they do have a positive turnover ratio and are coming off a good road win. You should feel confident putting your green on the home team here.
Game 3 – Ravens at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 1.5
Our Line: Ravens by 1
Our Play: Ravens to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: This line opened at New England -3, but has slowly moved towards a PICK game. If you can find a line with New England -2, we would suggest you take a small crack at it (or just play the Baltimore moneyline). Otherwise this game is looking too tight to be worth putting anything more than a modest bet on.
Game 4 – Bengals at Browns
Vegas Line: Bengals by 6
Our Line: Bengals by 5
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: This line opened at Cincinnati -4, but jumped to -6 quite quickly and has hovered there for most of the week. Yes in week 3 Cincinnati was our pick of the week to cover, but they were a underrated home dog against an overrated opponent then. Not the case here, where they are now a road favorite. The Vegas line looks solid here, so we advice moving on to better games.
Game 5 – Giants at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Giants by 9
Our Line: Giants by 5
Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Last week New York blew away Tampa Bay in Tampa, so we imagine most people are liking there chances to beat up on another weak opponent this week. We don’t think Kansas City will lay down as easily as that. Kansas City is historically tough at home, and their run defense should do a better job of containing RB’s Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.
Game 6 -Lions at Bears
Vegas Line: Bears by 10
Our Line: Bears by 6
Our Play: Lions to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Congratulations to the Detroit Lions on their first win in a long time. So will the win streak continue? Not likely, and we have heard a lot of people are expecting a big Lion letdown after their first win and are hopping on the Chicago bandwagon. Not so sure that is the case as this line has moved from Chicago -12 to Chicago -10. The Bears offense is just too inconsistent to be favored by 10 points. We like a small bet on Detroit in this spot.
Game 7 – Buccaneers at Redskins
Vegas Line: Redskins by 7.5
Our Line: Redskins by 7
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Its tough to have faith in either team in this match-up. The line looks pretty good at Washington -7.5, and one would expect the Redskins to come out hitting hard in attempt to make up for being the first team in forever to lose to the Lions. The problem is Washington is having a hard time running the football well, and Clinton Portis is Questionable for this Sunday. Look elsewhere.
Game 8 – Seahawks at Colts
Vegas Line: Colts by 10.5
Our Line: Colts by 11
Our Play: Colts to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Yes we think the Colts can cover a double digit spread against Seattle, especially since the Seahawk secondary is so depleted. We aren’t in love with covering so much though, as Seattle does rank in the top half in the league on both offense and defense.
Game 9 – Jets at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 7
Our Line: Saints by 7
Our Play: Saints to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: The slight edge goes to the home team here in the case of who is to cover. If the Jets manage to pull off the upset, they will have a very strong case for the most likely team to reach the Super Bowl this year. Currently we have the Saints ranked number one, with the Jets ranked seventh. There are a bunch of great match-ups to watch here, as the #1 scoring offense goes up against the #2 scoring defense.
Game 10 – Bills at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Bills by 1
Our Line: Dolphins by 2
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: This isn’t as great of a bet as it was earlier in the week when Buffalo had been pushed to a 2 point favorite by the early bettors. Buffalo’s offense has been very one dimensional, with the running game gaining almost as many yards as their passing. We don’t like the Bills chances of getting things turned around at Miami, who has been very good at stopping the run, and are overdue for a win.
Game 11 – Rams at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 9.5
Our Line: 49ers by 9
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Without Frank Gore we don’t have a lot of faith in San Francisco being a good bet to cover a double digit spread, even against the winless and WR-less Rams.
Game 12 – Cowboys at Broncos
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 4
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.75 units), Broncos to win (0.25 units)
Spin: We are not sure many people are aware of it, but Denver sports the #1 Defense in the NFL. In fact they are giving up just a hair over 5 points a game. Dallas is always an easy favorite, and we think they are getting a few too many points on the road this week. The Broncos are solid against the run, and both Dallas RB’s Jones and Barber are questionable this week. We think this is the best place to put your money down in week 4.
Game 13 – Chargers at Steelers
Vegas Line: Steelers by 6.5
Our Line: Steelers by 2
Our Play: Chargers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Much like Tennessee, people are still looking at this Steelers team like it is still 2008. It’s not. While this is the case you should take advantage, even if it is a smaller one. RB Tomilinson is expected to play for San Diego, while RB Parker is looking Questionable for Pittsburgh.
Game 14 – Packers at Vikings
Vegas Line: Vikings by 3.5
Our Line: Vikings by 7
Our Play: Vikings to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: The much anticipated Viking (Favre) vs. Green Bay match-up has arrived. Green Bay has failed to take advantage of their +8 turnover margin, barely beating Chicago, losing to Cincinnati at home, and then winning an easy game at St. Louis. Even if Farve struggles against his former team we don’t think that will prevent Minnesota from covering. We are expecting to see a lot of RB Adrian Peterson, and we think GB will struggle to contain him.
Game 15 – N/A
Vegas Line:
Our Line:
Our Play:
Spin:
Game 16 – N/A
Vegas Line:
Our Line:
Our Play:
Spin:
SUMMARY
Broncos to cover (0.75 units), Broncos to win (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (1.0 units)
Jaguars to cover (0.75 units)
Chargers to cover (0.25 units)
Lions to cover (0.25 units)
Chiefs to cover (0.25 units)
Vikings to cover (0.25 units)
Ravens to cover (0.25 units) – This line has expired, needs to be New England -2 or better
Dolphins to cover (0.25 units) – This line has expired, needs to be Buffalo -1.5 or better
Total Units: 4.25
Inside the Numbers (ITN) has posted its rankings for week 4 of the 2009 NFL Season.
How some of the mighty in the AFC have fallen! Check out Miami, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, all who were playoff teams last year
Inside the Numbers’ predictions for 2009:
Units (season): +2.98
Units (last week): +0.69
Against the Spread (season): 23-25
Against the Spread (last week): 6-10
Straight up (season): 33-15
Straight up (last week): 11-5
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +2.29
Units (last week): +2.05
Against the Spread (season): 17-15
Against the Spread (last week): 10-6
Straight up (season): 22-10
Straight up (last week): 9-7
Game 1 – Titans at Jets
Vegas Line: Jets by 3
Our Line: Jets by 9
Our Play: Jets to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: The Jets are finally getting the respect we have been talking about as this game opened in Vegas with them as a 2 point favorite. The public has been backing them enough to move that line up to Jets -3. Still, we think Vegas and the general public are underestimating the Jets, and probably are still overestimating Tennessee despite the Titans’ 0-2 start. It is worth noting that both teams have played Houston, and that the Jets won 24-7 at Houston, while Tennessee lost 31-34 at home.
Game 2 – Jaguars at Texans
Vegas Line: Texans by 3.5
Our Line: Texans by 3
Our Play: Jaguars to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: This line is probably a surprise to many as Jacksonville is 0-2 coming into this game while Houston is coming off a monster offensive performance that got them a big win in Tennessee. However weird it appears, we think the line is speaking the truth. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league so far, and should provide the spark the sputtering Jaguars offense will need to stay close this Sunday.
Game 3 – Chiefs at Eagles
Vegas Line: Eagles by 8.5
Our Line: Eagles by 6
Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Most bookies still aren’t taking any bets on this game as they are awaiting to see who will be starting at quarterback for Philadelphia. You too should use caution in this game, as it will be hard to predict how well Philadelphia will fare in this game. The Chiefs aren’t as horrible as everyone thinks, but that shouldn’t be enough of a reason to put money on this game.
Game 4 – Browns at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 13.5
Our Line: Ravens by 13
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: No one has any faith in Cleveland right now and this line is showing it. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been performing as well as it has in the past, but the offense is making up for the deficit. The Ravens are boasting a strong running game and the ability to find the end zone instead of settling for FG’s, all of which should scare you away from banking your money on the Browns to sneak out a cover, even if they are getting two full touchdowns.
Game 5 – Giants at Tampa Bay
Vegas Line: Giants by 6.5
Our Line: Giants by 2
Our Play: Tampa Bay to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: We know people are scratching their heads when they see the 2-0 Giants being favored by less than a touchdown against the 0-2 Tampa Bay Bucs. The absence of a healthy Justin Tuck has really weakened New York’s ability to stop the rush, and Tampa Bay’s strongest asset is their ability to move the chains on the ground. Look for them to maintain good possession of the football and stay within a field goal of winning the game.
Game 6 – Redskins at Lions
Vegas Line: Redskins by 6.5
Our Line: Redskins by 3
Our Play: Lions to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: There is actually quite a bit of love out there this week for the Detroit Lions. We have seen a lot of people making them their “play of the week.” We like them to cover in this game, but don’t like them as much as others are boasting. Detroit has proven they can stay in games for a while, but playing a full 60 minutes of football has evaded them for almost two years now, which has been a killer of them covering spreads that they should have locked up much earlier in the game. Washington has not played well this year, and has a history of playing poorly at Detroit. Still, take the Lions with caution here.
Game 7 – Packers at Rams
Vegas Line: Packers by 6
Our Line: Packers by 1
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Vegas thought the public would have more faith in Green Bay this week, opening this game at Packers -8.5, only to see the public pound the Rams. This isn’t a big surprise to us, as Green Bay has really struggled despite having a +5 turnover margin this early in the season. Don’t be too surprised if the Rams get their first win of the season this week.
Game 8 – 49ers at Vikings
Vegas Line: Vikings by 7
Our Line: Vikings by 3
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Who would have thought this would be one of the big match-ups of week 3? San Francisco has looked like a real contender so far this year, and we like what we have seen from their defense. Minnesota has played well, but certainly not amazing. We have a feeling this will be the game where we find out if Favre can still lead a team to victory, as we expect the 49ers to really focus on the stopping Peterson.
Game 9 – Falcons at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 4
Our Line: Falcons by 1
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: There seems to be very few people who believe that New England is a soft team this year, and we think you should continue to take a modest advantage of that. The Patriots offense just hasn’t been that sharp, and while they have the personnel to catch fire at any moment, we don’t think that the Falcons are going to be the team to let that happen.
Game 10 – Bears at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Bears by 2
Our Line: Seahawks by 7
Our Play: Seahawks to cover (1.25 units)
Spin: Ok, come back down to earth people. Yes Chicago just knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs as we predicted they would. But we will be the first to admit they could have easily lost that game. We know people are also pointing their fingers at the fact that Hasselback isn’t likely to start, but we don’t think that will be enough to save Chicago on the road. Backup QB Seneca Wallace, yes Seneca Wallace, should play well enough to give his team a win at home.
Game 11 – Saints at Bills
Vegas Line: Saints by 6
Our Line: Saints by 3
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Dolphins at Chargers
Vegas Line: Chargers by 6
Our Line: Chargers by 5
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Miami isn’t a bad team, but their schedule is about as bad as it gets.
Game 13 – Steelers at Bengals
Vegas Line: Steelers by 4
Our Line: Bengals by 6
Our Play: Bengals to cover (1.25 units), Bengals to win (0.25 units)
Spin: This is our game of the week. The Bengals could very easily by 2-0 folks, and if you remember back to week 1, Pittsburgh had to go overtime otherwise they would be 0-2. Pitt’s run game has been dismal, and it has made it tough for them to find the end zone. And guess what? The Bengals have shown they can stop the run, and keep a team out of the end zone!
Game 14 – Broncos at Raiders
Vegas Line: Broncos by 2
Our Line: Broncos by 3
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: There has been a lot of movement in the line on this game, as it opened with the Raiders at -2.5, and now the line has swung a full 4 points in Denver’s favor.
Game 15 – Colts at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 2.5
Our Line: Cardinals by 3
Our Play: Cardinals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 16 – Panthers at Cowboys
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 8.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 8
Our Play: Panthers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
SUMMARY
Bengals to cover (1.25 units), Bengals to win (0.25 units)
Seahawks to cover (1.25 units)
Jets to cover (0.75 units)
Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Tampa Bay to cover (0.25 units)
Lions to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 4.75 units
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Header Image taken by Anderson Mancini
