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Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +.24
Units (last week): +.24
Against the Spread (season): 7-9
Against the Spread (last week): 7-9
Straight up (season): 13-3
Straight up (last week): 13-3
Game 1 – Raiders at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Chiefs by 3
Our Line: Raiders by 3
Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Oakland looked like a team to be reckoned with last week against the much heralded Chargers. If San Diego is as good as everyone seems to be saying they are (we don’t think they are), then you have to give the Raiders another look. Kansas City performed better than expected last week, but still lost by two touchdowns.
Game 2 – Texans at Titans
Vegas Line: Titans by 7
Our Line: Titan by 5
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Houston really got stuck by the New York Jets last week, while Tennessee played a very hard fought game on the road at Pittsburgh. The Titans defense is one to be reckoned with, but the untold story here is how well the Houston defense performed while their offense was doing absolutely nothing. We see Houston QB Shaub and RB Slaton having a significantly better outing, even if it is one that doesn’t get their team a win.
Game 3 – Patriots at Jets
Vegas Line: Patriots by 3.5
Our Line: Jets by 7
Our Play: Jets to cover (1.75 units), Jets to win (0.25 units)
Spin: Vegas opened this game at Patriots -4.5, and it didn’t take too long for it to move to -3.5, so there is some confidence in the Jets amongst the bettors this week. Last week we bet confidently on the underrated Jets, and we won’t be changing that this week. Their defense is already proving to be stifling, and the offense will get better as the year progresses. Right now we have them as the best team in the AFC East. New England could have very easily lost at Buffalo, and it is a testament to their hardiness that they pulled out the win. Nevertheless, we will happily take the Jets to cover over a field goal at home.
Game 4 – Bengals at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 9
Our Line: Packers by 11
Our Play: Packers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Green Bay had a +4 turnover advantage last week at home against Chicago last week, and still almost dropped the game. That worries us enough to stay away from betting them. The Bengals proved they are pretty hapless by allowing Denver to even have a miracle shot at winning, and then actually let them complete that miracle. There are much better games to bet on this week than on a yet to see Packers team needing to cover by two scores.
Game 5 – Vikings at Lions
Vegas Line: Vikings by 9.5
Our Line: Lions by 1
Our Play: Lions to cover (1.5 units)
Spin: Yes, we do have faith in the Detroit Lions. More so, we have faith in Brad Childress and Brett Favre to struggle on the road in a dome. Last year Minnesota snuck out two wins against Detroit by a total of 6 points. Peterson is certainly someone to worry about, but we don’t see him being able to carry his team to a ten point victory all by himself. We feel Detroit is building up to their first win in a long time, and even if they don’t quite get there this week they will stay within 10 points of their division rivals.
Game 6 – Saints at Eagles
Vegas Line: Saints by 1
Our Line: Eagles by 3
Our Play: Eagles to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: This line opened at Eagles -1, but the combination of Drew Brees’ performance last week and QB McNabb likely being out this week for Philadelphia has been enough to move the line to favor New Orleans. We think that is a minor mistake, as the defense of Philadelphia is much, much better than Detroit’s, and New Orleans will be on the road. It’s not the most enticing bet out there this week, but we like the McNabb-less Eagles to stay strong and earn another win.
Game 7 – Panthers at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 6
Our Line: Falcons by 11
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: After watching the NFC South play last week, we are even more confident in naming Atlanta the team to beat. Carolina is struggling a lot right now, and we do expect them to start playing better, just not on the road against a very confident and talented team. Look for Atlanta’s offense to put up some pretty good numbers at home this week.
Game 8 – Rams at Redskins
Vegas Line: Redskins by 9.5
Our Line: Redskins by 4
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Is St. Louis really that bad? They might be, but right now we aren’t convinced that their offense is as incapable as they looked against Seattle. We feel Washington is a good team, but they are far too inconsistent for us have a lot of faith in them covering a two score spread. We will cautiously expect a better game from both teams this week, with just enough on the Rams’ part to cover.
Game 9 – Cardinals at Jaguars
Vegas Line: Jaguars by 3
Our Line: Jaguars by 1
Our Play: Cardinals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Seahawks at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 1
Our Line: 49ers by 3
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Buccaneers at Bills
Vegas Line: Bills by 4
Our Line: Buccaneers by 1
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Browns at Broncos
Vegas Line: Broncos by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 12
Our Play: Broncos to cover (1.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Ravens at Chargers
Vegas Line: Chargers by 3
Our Line: Ravens by 2
Our Play: Ravens to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 14 – Steelers at Bears
Vegas Line: Steelers by 3
Our Line: Bears by 1
Our Play: Bears to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 15 – Giants at Cowboys
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 2.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 5
Our Play: Cowboys to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 16 – Colts at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Colts by 3
Our Line: Colts by 1
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
SUMMARY
Jets to cover (1.75 units), Jets to win (0.25 units)
Lions to cover (1.5 units)
Broncos to cover (1.0 units)
Ravens to cover (0.25 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Bears to cover (0.25 units)
Eagles to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 6.25 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Against the Spread (week 1): 1-0
Straight up (week 1): 1-0
Game 1 – Dolphins at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 4
Our Line: Falcons by 9
Our Play: Falcons to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Atlanta thinks they are the best team in the NFC South, and for now we aren’t ones to disagree. Don’t expect them to come out flat in their home opener, and this year no one will be taking the rejuvenated Dolphins lightly.
Game 2 – Chiefs at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 13
Our Line: Ravens by 22
Our Play: Ravens to cover (1.5 units)
Spin: No one is putting any confidence in a lame Cassel or in backup QB Dwayne Bowe. Baltimore’s defense will be top notch as always and wouldn’t have a problem with Kansas City even if they were healthy. The sportbooks lines are all over the place, from the at Ravens -14 to -12.5 and everything in between. Look for a few people who hate double digit spreads to come back on the Chiefs Sunday morning, and see if a little patience can get you a line around Ravens -11 or -10.
Game 3 – Eagles at Panthers
Vegas Line: Eagles by 2.5
Our Line: Eagles by 7
Our Play: Eagles to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Vegas had some confidence in Carolina to start out the week, opening the spread at Panthers -1. The bettors quickly showed whose side they are on and the line has since moved to Eagles -2.5. We have a hard time seeing it move to spot the Eagles a full field goal on the road, but you never know. Everyone still has the Panthers playoff debacle still in their minds. Either way, we expect Philadelphia to flex their strength and show they are contending for the NFC Championship.
Game 4 – Broncos at Bengals
Vegas Line: Bengals by 5
Our Line: Bengals by 4
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Basically we think you should stay away from betting this game. Denver QB Orton has a busted up finger but should still start, whether that actually helps his team or not is anyone’s guess. We think the more consistent team will be Cincinnati who has a finally healthy QB Palmer to get the rest of the team’s adrenaline flowing. That being said this is the Bengals we’re talking about. There are better games out there to lay down your hard earned money on.
Game 5 – Vikings at Browns
Vegas Line: Vikings by 3.5
Our Line: Vikings by 2
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: The Vikings have an explosive offense and a tough run defense, and on paper should contend for the NFC Championship, but remember Brad Childress is their coach. The Browns aren’t all that exciting, but can certainly hold their own at home. Until Minnesota’s coach can prove he can make better use of his team’s weapons we are going to keep our money elsewhere.
Game 6 – Jets at Texans
Vegas Line: Houston by 4.5
Our Line: Jets by 6
Our Play: Jets to Cover (1.25 units), Jets to win (.25 units)
Spin: We are surprised how much people are underestimating the Jets here. Yes Sanchez is a rookie, but this offense has a lot of weapons in good form to help him out. The Houston offense is looking very capable as always, but their defense will still have its hands full. We’re expecting a fairly high scoring affair with a few untimely turnovers by the Texans offense to give the reigns and the win to the Jets.
Game 7 – Jaguars at Colts
Vegas Line: Colts by 7
Our Line: Colts by 16
Our Play: Colts to cover (1.0 units)
Spin: Last year Chicago waltzed in to new Lucas Oil Stadium and gave Indianapolis a beating. We don’t think that will be the case again this year. Manning much like Favre in his heyday can turn any group of receivers into pro bowlers. David Garrard, not so much. Expect the Colts to have a strong game on both sides of the ball come Sunday.
Game 8 – Lions at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 13.5
Our Line: Saints by 7
Our Play: Lions to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Yes, we are looking for the Saints to underwhelm this Sunday. They still can’t find a way to keep their running backs healthy, and even when they did they haven’t exactly shined. The New Orleans passing attack is potent, but the real weakness of the Detroit defense is against the run. Don’t be surprised to see the Lions hang tough for most of this game.
Game 9 – Cowboys at Buccaneers
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 5
Our Line: Buccaneers by 8
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (1.25 units), Buccaneers to win (.25 units)
Spin: Obviously we are not sold on the Cowboys. Their defense is overrated, and the offense has never clicked the way it should, and we don’t see that starting up in week one on the road. Yes there has been a lot of turmoil in Tampa Bay, but this team still has some decent pieces to it. Giving the Cowboys that much on the road is a mistake by bettors that you should take advantage of (remember this line opened at Cowboys -3, so Vegas was much more tempered on their chances).
Game 10 – 49ers at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 6
Our Line: Cardinals by 3
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: San Francisco has been on the verge of becoming relevant for some time now, and the personnel is starting to come together for them. Arizona has some question marks, especially on defense. We think it is better to wait and see before putting money down on the Cards.
Game 11 – Redskins at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 6.5
Our Line: Giants by 12
Our Play: Giants to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Will Haynesworth be the answer for Washington to finally beat their New York rivals? We really don’t think it will be as easy as that, as we still expect the New York ground game to have success moving the football, especially with RB Jacobs looking healthy.
Game 12 – Rams at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Seahawks by 7.5
Our Line: Seahawks by 2
Our Play: Rams to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Yes the Rams have been terrible, but their offense is good enough to keep them in games. Seattle is still in disarray after a very ugly final season under coach Holmgren. Branch still isn’t healthy, and Julius Jones does not inspire us.
Game 13 – Bears at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 4
Our Line: Packers by 2
Our Play: Bears to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: We think Green Bay is the better team here, but with this rivalry happening in week 1 of the season, that is just too much uncertainty for us. We’ll see how well the Green Bay defense is able to stop Chicago RB Matt Forte before putting our green on the Pack.
Game 14 – Bills at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 10.5
Our Line: Patriots by 12
Our Play: Patriots to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: A lot of people think Brady and the Patriots will come out looking to run up the score to let everyone know they are ready to play like the team of 2007. We think the Patriot offense should be clicking, but have enough respect for the Bills up and coming offense to keep us from laying out money on a double digit spread here.
Game 15 – Chargers at Raiders
Vegas Line: Chargers by 9.5
Our Line: Chargers by 11
Our Play: Chargers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: The madness with Merriman seems to be over, and we expect San Diego to come out focused on football. Its hard to have a lot of faith in the Raiders these days, and until they show some consistency we won’t be putting money on them even with hefty two score spreads.
SUMMARY
Ravens to cover (1.5 units)
Jets to Cover (1.25 units), Jets to win (.25 units)
Buccaneers to cover (1.25 units), Buccaneers to win (.25 units)
Colts to cover (1.0 units)
Eagles to cover (.25 units)
Giants to cover (.25 units)
Rams to cover (.25 units)
Lions to cover (.25 units)
Falcons to cover (.25 units)
Total: 6.75 units
Hello fellow sports bettors and NFL enthusiasts, I know this is a little late but I want to get it out there nevertheless. First off remember to take it easy for week 1! Can’t stress that enough, as the preseason offers little concrete information.
Titans @ Steelers
Our Line: Steelers by 5
Vegas Line: 6
Our Pick Bet(s): Tennessee to cover OR Steelers to win
Spin: Almost all the major sites have TEN +6, although you might be able to snag TEN +7 on Five Dimes. The margin here is very small, so we don’t advocate a very large bet against the spread. If you can’t help but lay down some heavy cash on a bet, make it on PIT to win.
Hello ABW readers. I have been browsing the forums out there, and have come across countless amounts of madness going on over the Buffalo at Miami game this week. The hullaballoo is really over the Vegas line, which currently sits at Buffalo -1. If you have been following the NFL this year, right away the line probably makes you scratch your head. Buffalo’s record is 5-1 while Miami’s is only 2-4, so why is the line so tight? This is a classic ‘Fading the Public’ game for people who make Odds based predictions. Basically the line looks off, so a large portion of the public bets on one side, in this case Buffalo. These Odds based bettors see all that action on Buffalo and the wierd line and think, “This can’t be right, if Buffalo wins, Vegas will lose a bunch of money. Vegas is smart, and always wins, so that must mean Miami is going to win this game.” Before I get going on the ins and out of ‘Fading the Public’ lets take a look at some posts on this topic.
From covers.com forums : http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100264113
Skip the posts and get to the major point, and the prediction for the BUF @ MIA game!
(my comments in italics)
Post #1
“When vegas puts a line on a game like Jets -3 at Oakland (NFL week 7) they are begging for Jets money. Colts -1 at GB (NFL week 7) begging for Colts money. This week its 5-1 Buffalo at 2-4 Miami. The line? The Bills -5? No…..The line comes at Bills-1! They are begging for Bills takers, and the public will take them at huge levels. Guessing between 75-90 percent, this makes the play the Miami Dolphins”
(Ok, so we know the line is weird, and that Vegas doesn’t lose, so that must mean Miami is the play)
Post #2
“One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is “All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides” Well if that’s what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side? I have NEVER believed that bullshit. They set you up with their lines. They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.”
(Ok, so Vegas doesn’t want equal action on both sides because Vegas is almost 100% sure the public will be wrong on this game and wants to trap them into taking the wrong side. They aren’t worried about the underdog losing, because Vegas knows the dog is going to win)
Post #3
“Don’t tap the glass!!!!!”
(What? more on this later it actually reveals something important)
Post #4
“I think he means don’t tell everyone the system! (referring to post #3) Like tappin a wine glass to make an announcement, LOL. Seriously not sure why people give you so much crap when all you are trying to do is share what works for you. I think it pisses people off because if true it would prove they have little chance of outhandicapping Vegas consistently.”
(Oh ok, so ‘Don’t tap the glass means’ don’t let out the secret that Vegas does try to trap the public with weird lines that don’t make sense. That way only a few of will make a profit and we won’t jeopardize moving the line in the opposite direction we want by giving out the secret of ‘Fading the Public’)
(Let’s do a quick summary. Agreed line on Buffalo @ Miami is weird. Using released information from bookies/casinos we can see the Public is predictably hopping all over Buffalo, with a very large majority of the bets being placed on the Bills to win/cover. If Buffalo does indeed win this game, Vegas would then lose a bunch of money, which doesn’t make sense since everyone agrees that Vegas always wins. So following that line of thought, Vegas must know Miami is actually going to win, and is suckering in the public’s money with the wierd line)
Post #5
“They arent aiming for 50% of the bets on both sides. They’re aiming for 50% of the money on both sides. That why they (Vegas/Casinos/Bookies) are guaranteed winners.”
(I thought we had this settled already)
Post #6
“Have you ever visited an aquarium or a zoo, and noticed the signs that ask you not to knock on the glass????? This is to avoid disturbing the animals within.
Don’t tap the glass, it disturbs the fish…….”
(Hmm, thought this was settled too, what are you trying to say?)
Post #7
“It is when the line refuses to budge or actually goes the other way that you ask yourself why is it , that more money is going the opposite way of most money?”
(Referring to movement in the line. If the public is pounding the bills with the majority of bets (over 80%), then the line should move from BUF -1 to BUF -1.5/-2/-2.5. Since it hasn’t moved, again we wonder what Vegas is up to? They must want the bets to continue to pour onto Buffalo since they seem to know Miami is going to win. Right?)
Post #8
“sigh… some people will never learn…it is simple mathematics… if you are getting a vig (getting a cut on the wagers made, i.e. rake), you win money simply by getting equal action, regardless of who wins… and the guy who pointed out that you are a sucker if you are believing the public % numbers the books are giving you… was dead on! if this information could be used AGAINST the books, why would they give it to you? because they are generous? simpletons… gotta love ‘em…”
(Ok, things are beginning to get confusing. So Vegas does want equal action? Also, why would they release the % of bets made on a team to the public if it made the public win more money? That certainly does not follow the logic that Vegas always wins)
Post #9
“and they don’t need to sucker people with bad lines… people are suckers to begin with and don’t know how to handicap the games… if a line looks fishy, it’s because you don’t know what the correct line should be, and they do…”
(hmm, yes that is an interesting point)
Post #10
“By Steve Schorr, Tahoe Tribune correspondent
Early Sunday morning, as gamblers flood the sports books, a group of Las Vegas-based ’sports junkies’ are cooking up the lines for the following week’s NFL matchups.
Roxy Roxborough, former owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was asked what it takes to be an oddsmaker.
‘I’ve always believed that any odds making brew includes parts of both art and science,’ Roxborough said. ‘The degree to which each ingredient appears depends on who’s stirring the pot. The guys setting the lines are all individuals, with their own preferences and procedures, but everyone has to take both aspects of oddsmaking into account.’
LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina, a believer in the intuitive school of oddsmaking, stated, ‘Not all sports are the same, but when it comes to the NFL, I sort of feel the number. I then pull out the stat book and validate the number by checking the power ratings, betting patterns and other hard data to make sure everything makes sense.
‘In the NFL, where the public really gets involved, you can get a feel for the number pretty easily. There are other areas, such as college football and NBA totals, where professional gamblers have been particularly successful that you have to look at the mathematical approach a little more.’
The meeting of the sports junky minds begins on Sundays at approximately 4:15 p.m. Five guys push their desks together, forming an octagon, as they pore over the upcoming contests.
Game by game, each oddsmaker discusses his theory on the correct point spread. After consideration of each individual’s opinion, a line is set and the numbers are shipped off to the Las Vegas Stardust where management, along with outside consultants, review the numbers, make adjustments and then post the lines.
A group of bettors known as sharks or ‘Wise Guys’ draw straws to see who’s the lucky guy to make the first bets. These professionals then take turns betting the games, as the sports book personnel adjust the lines and attempt to balance the action. Betting continues until the last “Wise Guy” believes the numbers no longer offer him/her any value or advantage.
Monday mornings, linesmakers across the state begin putting up the numbers that reflect the opinion of the smartest players in the business, a group of individuals who attempt to make a living betting sports. As one Wise Guy said when it comes to posting the lines, ‘The early bird gets the number.’ Then again, as I am fond of telling all you ‘dog’ bettors, ‘The patient investor will be rewarded with the extra point.’”
(Aha! So that is how Vegas does it. This really makes sense, but definitely adds confusion to the validity of the ”Fading the Public” move.)
Post #11
“Ahh…the ALWAYS mistaken public consensus numbers for vegas’ books issue.
Greyhound i’d expect more from an allstar. Getting even books at game time is their only motivation period! No risk, just collect the vig. That is how vegas wins year in and year out collegegambler…zero risk. Now they do use their expertise to set a line to make sure the dumb public puts enough money to even the sharps’ money. And its up to you to find that inflated line…thats where simply capping the game and not worrying about the consensus can yield you the same results…(CG all those games that you mention you won by fading the public…i won too, but didn’t look at the consensus numbers for one second.)
Lets get one thing straight, the consensus numbers are the number of bettors on a side, not a measure on which side has more money on it…we don’t know how the money is coming in…ever! Those of you that put all this power in the consensus numbers from wagerline, vegasinsider, etc, must realize that is only the number of bets on a side not the amount of money!
Easy example: Lets say one guy puts 1 million on a side and 1000 ‘public’ people hammer the other side at 100 dollars a bet…the books still have an uneven book by 900k!…so they bump the line and all these people claim ‘look at the reverse line movement’ when nothing has changed (Bingo! remember post #7).
Simply cap the game and arrive at a spread you think is logical. If the line your book gives you is way off, then hammer it, end of story. Even better have multiple books to shop for the line that you think gives you the best edge. If you cant follow that logic then quit gambling.
If you must use consensus numbers to help make your decision, a good rule of thumb would be to use it to convince yourself of a no play…in other words if you are on the same side as 80-100% of the consensus, then use that as a reason to not bet, and not a reason to take the other side.”
(Confused yet? This is some of the best advice on the thread, and really hits on the problems with ‘Fading the Public.’ Interestingly enough, most of the people advocating the Fade can only refer back to post #2, and keep calling it a trap. No one has anything new to offer to defend the theory. There are also quite a few threads that call out these 80% Fades as having a poor long term record, and no one has been able to dispute that. Currently it is believed they are 14-12 against the spread. Basically break even.)
Post #12
“‘Fading the Public’ is sooo right. I am a small sports investment broker(AKA bookmaker) with about 15 clients. Everytime I get everybody on one side; without question the side will lose at least 90 percent of the time. In fact, I have a guy who calls and asks me who everybody is on and he goes the other way. He has won overall in football three years in a row. Amazing but true.”
(Ok, now we have someone bringing up how the Fade works like magic again. No it doesn’t make sense, but apparantly it wins. Also is the possibility that he just has really dumb clients.)
Post #13
“Ah, a ‘line is what it is’ person. My kind of guy. Even my wife understands the concept of a line always being correct, that there is no such thing as a trap (except in the bettors’ own mind), and she doesn’t gamble! If, in the fourth quarter or in OT, Jamarcus Russell had dropped back to throw, been hit, ball pops loose and Jets scoop it up and return it for a TD, then the Jets win and cover and all the supposedly ‘trapped’ people would have won. A game straddling the spread is always one play away from being busted, by either side. Anyone who bet on Raiders-Jets was pretty much lucky/unlucky. They should have been on St. Louis or Carolina, sides who left no doubt. If people keep getting involved in games that straddle the spread till the end, they will win some, lose some, and be long-term 50-percenters. 50-percenters lose. The sportsbooks love long-term 50-percenters because they keep the sportsbook’s profits coming in.”
(More great advice. This also follows along strongly with Post #10)
Post #14
“Why do you believe the Fake % ???
Why is the Money Wagered not Released ???
that is the question none of these clowns ever ask? those numbers are intended to mislead people… they know people are simplistic thinkers, and can’t get beyond a big % number and an opposite line move…I am convinced some genius sportsbook manager is the one who came up with the idea to release these numbers, knowing that it would be one more way to sucker bettors looking for an easy way out…”
(Hitting another really strong point, and confirming the thoughts on Post #’s 5, 7, 8, 11)
Post #15
“(Referring to ‘don’t tap the glass’) Perfect. The best advice this poster ever got. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! They can swim in their big tank, their own little world. The sportsbooks come around six times a day to sprinkle feed on the surface and they are trained to rush up and peck at it. Why disturb artificial nature? Again, thank you!
(So maybe Vegas puts out lines that look like easy winners so you keep coming back each week. Or Maybe they have trained bettors to see these lines in a certain way and are now using reverse pyschology to get them to bet on the dog. For example, what if they had opened the line at -3 or -4 or even -5? Nothing fishy about that, and what would happen? Everyone would agree and pound Buffalo with bets, and no one would think twice about Miami. They don’t want that, so what do they do? Open at -1, everyone’s fish radar goes blaring crazy, and before you know it half the bettors out there are actually putting plenty of money on Miami. Hmmmmm)
END OF POSTS AND THREAD ON COVERS.COM
So what have we learned folks? Well lets try to break it down this way.
Assumption #1: Vegas is trying to use pyschology and schemes on the public in order to ‘trap’ them into incorrectly betting hard on a team Vegas knows will lose.
Reality: Judging from the above posts, and the other threads out there, Vegas doesn’t need to do any sort of pyschology scheming at all. We do that pretty well all by ourselves. Moreover, unless we are Vegas, we are never really going to know what they are up to.
Assumption #2: The perentage of bets going on one side of a wager is reliable information.
Reality: How one can assume that the very people who are trying to take the public’s money are going give the public information that will help them keep their money is beyond me.
Assumption #3: Vegas does not want the sides bet evenly at 50/50. Vegas knows with a very high accuracy which teams will win or lose, and hence are again trying to ‘trap’ the public into betting the wrong way.
Reality: If Vegas really was that good, then why would they only pay out 90% on a spread bet? Why not pay out 98% or even 99% so they could entice more people into betting? It just doesn’t make sense. They really do want even amounts of money on both sides, that way at a 90% payout they will always get their 10%. No risk, guaranteed money. That is what Vegas is about. Let’s put the nail in the coffin on this one. A little math here.
Say Vegas really does want the money on one side. We’ll keep nice round numbers in play. Say there is $100,000 dollars wagered in total on the Buffalo -1 vs. Miami +1 game. 80% of it gets bet on Buffalo, and 20% gets bet on Miami.
Bufflo = $80,000
Miami = $20,000
So what happens if Buffalo covers?
Using the standard -110 odds:
-$80,000 (pay public their original bets back)
-$72,727 (pay public the winnings from betting on Buffalo)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= -$52,717 (Owed to the public when Buffalo covers)
If Miami wins?
-$20,000 (pay public their original bets back)
-$18,182 (pay public the winnings from betting on Miami)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= $61,818 (Profit won by Vegas if Miami covers)
So how many times does Miami have to win in order for Vegas to break even?
$52,717/$61,818 = .85 times
Since you cannot win .85 times, you either win/lose/push, that means Miami has to win 3 out every 7 times for Vegas to make a profit of $25,453. Vegas has to be 42% sure that 2-4 Miami is going to essentially defeat 5-1 Buffalo. This is almost laughable, and not a good way to run a business.
What happens if $50,000 is wagered on each team?
-$50,000 (pay public their original winning bets back regardless who wins)
-$45,455 (pay public the winnings from betting on the winner)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= $4,545 (Profit won no matter who wins/covers)
So over the course of 7 games, Vegas would win $31,818 no matter who won the game! Even if Buffalo won/covered all seven contests, or vice versa, Vegas gets more profit. This is how you run a business! Absolutely Vegas wants 50% of the money on each side (they could care less about the % of bets) so not only do they get more profit, they are more consistent. This really kills any ‘trap’ theory out there. It is your job to make sure you have handicapped the game correctly, and it Vegas’ job to make sure they get the same amount of MONEY on each side.
Assumption #4: If a line is weird/fishy/confusing to you, then the best play is often to not make one.
Reality: This makes complete sense. If you don’t understand electrical wiring, do you try and fix a faulty switch? If you don’t understand how motors are built do you try and fix your car yourself? Plumbing? No you don’t. Stay away from lines that don’t make any sense to you and stick to the ones that do. This will really help your betting in the long run.
Assumption #5: The best way to make a wager is to handicap the line yourself before you even look at the Vegas line, then make a decision based off of comparing your line to the current or expected Vegas line.
Reality: This works if you have a history of handicapping games well. If you don’t have a history of doing so, then you may need to get some help from another handicapper you trust. It is very likely the decision they came to was made by creating their own line and then comparing it to the Vegas line. Keep track of your results, and always keep looking for ways to improve how you handicap games.
Since we have talked so much about this game, I will post Inside the Numbers pick on this game as a little bonus. Good luck everyone on their bets, either way you go.
Buffalo:
ITN overall rank: #4
Win Grade (team fundamentals) rank: #4
Real Points (strength of schedule) rank: #6
Notes week 8: A healthy Edwards at QB makes for a very healthy Bills offense. He may not be league MVP, but he’s certainly the Bills’. Meanwhile the rest of the team continues to be efficient, ranking in the top ten in kickoff yards allowed, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down %, and in penalties.
Miami:
ITN overall rank: #20
Win Grade (team fundamentals) rank: #24
Real Points (strength of schedule) rank: #17
Notes week 8: Taking one of the last two games would have really helped Miami’s chances of finishing above .500, as they have a favorable second half schedule. Their inability to stop the pass has to take most of the blame for those losses.
Game Review:
Outside of this being a home game, there is little to Miami’s advantage in this matchup. Buffalo has the means to limit Brown and the Wildcat offense, much like Baltimore did last week. Our rankings don’t see much weakness in Buffalo either, with the only marks against them being that Win Grade (team fundamentals) shows them as playing just slightly better than they probably are. As far as the host team goes, our system certainly sees them as underrated and underplaying the level they are capable of, but unfortunately for them their opponent in this game is too strong for that potential to be realized. Look for Edwards to have another solid day, and for the Buffalo secondary to give the Miami aerial attack fits, forcing Miami into a predictable offensive plan that has trouble putting points on the board.
Our line: Buffalo by 9
Buffalo to win confidence: 72%
Buffalo to cover confidence: 69%
Tags: fading the public | nfl fades | nfl betting | football week 8
Last Updated: 11pm 10/21/2008
# of games last week where the line moved in the direction predicted: 11
# of games where line moved in opposite direction or did not change: 3
(MIA @ HOU, NYG @ CLE, NE @ SD)
Against the spread lines
| Matchup | Open line | Expected close | Closed |
| 49ers @ Giants | 10.5 | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| Broncos @ Patriots | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Browns @ Redskins | 7.5 | 6 | 7 |
| Chargers @ Bills | 0 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Colts @ Packers | -1 | -1.6 | -2.5 |
| Cowboys @ Rams | -6.5 | -7.1 | -8 |
| Jets @ Raiders | -3 | -3.3 | -3 |
| Lions @ Texans | 8.5 | 7.9 | 11 |
| Ravens @ Dolphins | 3 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Saints @ Panthers | 3 | 2.3 | 3 |
| Seahawks @ Buccaneers | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| Steelers @ Bengals | -9.5 | -10.9 | -8 |
| Titans @ Chiefs | -8 | -8 | -8.5 |
| Vikings @ Bears | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Money Line Odds – Away teams
| Away | Open odds | Expected close | Closed |
| 49ers | 400 | 369 | 375 |
| Broncos | 150 | 165 | 140 |
| Browns | 285 | 193 | 250 |
| Chargers | -110 | -108 | -110 |
| Colts | -120 | -130 | -145 |
| Cowboys | -275 | -259 | -350 |
| Jets | -170 | -185 | -175 |
| Lions | 340 | 283 | 400 |
| Ravens | 125 | 136 | 140 |
| Saints | 140 | 139 | 130 |
| Seahawks | 460 | 438 | 450 |
| Steelers | -500 | -505 | -380 |
| Titans | -370 | -358 | -360 |
| Vikings | 155 | 159 | 155 |
Money Line Odds – Home teams
| Home | Open odds | Expected Close | Closed |
| Giants | -500 | -469 | -475 |
| Patriots | -170 | -185 | -160 |
| Redskins | -335 | -243 | -300 |
| Bills | -110 | -112 | -115 |
| Packers | 100 | 110 | 125 |
| Rams | 235 | 219 | 280 |
| Raiders | 150 | 165 | 150 |
| Texans | -410 | -353 | -600 |
| Dolphins | -145 | -156 | -160 |
| Panthers | -160 | -159 | -150 |
| Buccaneers | -560 | -538 | -600 |
| Bengals | 400 | 405 | 315 |
| Chiefs | 300 | 288 | 300 |
| Bears | -175 | -179 | -175 |
Teams that the public favors the most: Baltimore, Philadelphia, Miami
Teams that the public favors the least: Cincinnati, Seattle, Washington
Teams with very little movement: Titans, Panthers
