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Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +.24
Units (last week): +.24
Against the Spread (season): 7-9
Against the Spread (last week): 7-9
Straight up (season): 13-3
Straight up (last week): 13-3
Game 1 – Raiders at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Chiefs by 3
Our Line: Raiders by 3
Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Oakland looked like a team to be reckoned with last week against the much heralded Chargers. If San Diego is as good as everyone seems to be saying they are (we don’t think they are), then you have to give the Raiders another look. Kansas City performed better than expected last week, but still lost by two touchdowns.
Game 2 – Texans at Titans
Vegas Line: Titans by 7
Our Line: Titan by 5
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Houston really got stuck by the New York Jets last week, while Tennessee played a very hard fought game on the road at Pittsburgh. The Titans defense is one to be reckoned with, but the untold story here is how well the Houston defense performed while their offense was doing absolutely nothing. We see Houston QB Shaub and RB Slaton having a significantly better outing, even if it is one that doesn’t get their team a win.
Game 3 – Patriots at Jets
Vegas Line: Patriots by 3.5
Our Line: Jets by 7
Our Play: Jets to cover (1.75 units), Jets to win (0.25 units)
Spin: Vegas opened this game at Patriots -4.5, and it didn’t take too long for it to move to -3.5, so there is some confidence in the Jets amongst the bettors this week. Last week we bet confidently on the underrated Jets, and we won’t be changing that this week. Their defense is already proving to be stifling, and the offense will get better as the year progresses. Right now we have them as the best team in the AFC East. New England could have very easily lost at Buffalo, and it is a testament to their hardiness that they pulled out the win. Nevertheless, we will happily take the Jets to cover over a field goal at home.
Game 4 – Bengals at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 9
Our Line: Packers by 11
Our Play: Packers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Green Bay had a +4 turnover advantage last week at home against Chicago last week, and still almost dropped the game. That worries us enough to stay away from betting them. The Bengals proved they are pretty hapless by allowing Denver to even have a miracle shot at winning, and then actually let them complete that miracle. There are much better games to bet on this week than on a yet to see Packers team needing to cover by two scores.
Game 5 – Vikings at Lions
Vegas Line: Vikings by 9.5
Our Line: Lions by 1
Our Play: Lions to cover (1.5 units)
Spin: Yes, we do have faith in the Detroit Lions. More so, we have faith in Brad Childress and Brett Favre to struggle on the road in a dome. Last year Minnesota snuck out two wins against Detroit by a total of 6 points. Peterson is certainly someone to worry about, but we don’t see him being able to carry his team to a ten point victory all by himself. We feel Detroit is building up to their first win in a long time, and even if they don’t quite get there this week they will stay within 10 points of their division rivals.
Game 6 – Saints at Eagles
Vegas Line: Saints by 1
Our Line: Eagles by 3
Our Play: Eagles to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: This line opened at Eagles -1, but the combination of Drew Brees’ performance last week and QB McNabb likely being out this week for Philadelphia has been enough to move the line to favor New Orleans. We think that is a minor mistake, as the defense of Philadelphia is much, much better than Detroit’s, and New Orleans will be on the road. It’s not the most enticing bet out there this week, but we like the McNabb-less Eagles to stay strong and earn another win.
Game 7 – Panthers at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 6
Our Line: Falcons by 11
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: After watching the NFC South play last week, we are even more confident in naming Atlanta the team to beat. Carolina is struggling a lot right now, and we do expect them to start playing better, just not on the road against a very confident and talented team. Look for Atlanta’s offense to put up some pretty good numbers at home this week.
Game 8 – Rams at Redskins
Vegas Line: Redskins by 9.5
Our Line: Redskins by 4
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Spin: Is St. Louis really that bad? They might be, but right now we aren’t convinced that their offense is as incapable as they looked against Seattle. We feel Washington is a good team, but they are far too inconsistent for us have a lot of faith in them covering a two score spread. We will cautiously expect a better game from both teams this week, with just enough on the Rams’ part to cover.
Game 9 – Cardinals at Jaguars
Vegas Line: Jaguars by 3
Our Line: Jaguars by 1
Our Play: Cardinals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Seahawks at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 1
Our Line: 49ers by 3
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Buccaneers at Bills
Vegas Line: Bills by 4
Our Line: Buccaneers by 1
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Browns at Broncos
Vegas Line: Broncos by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 12
Our Play: Broncos to cover (1.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Ravens at Chargers
Vegas Line: Chargers by 3
Our Line: Ravens by 2
Our Play: Ravens to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 14 – Steelers at Bears
Vegas Line: Steelers by 3
Our Line: Bears by 1
Our Play: Bears to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 15 – Giants at Cowboys
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 2.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 5
Our Play: Cowboys to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 16 – Colts at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Colts by 3
Our Line: Colts by 1
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
SUMMARY
Jets to cover (1.75 units), Jets to win (0.25 units)
Lions to cover (1.5 units)
Broncos to cover (1.0 units)
Ravens to cover (0.25 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Falcons to cover (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Bears to cover (0.25 units)
Eagles to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 6.25 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Against the Spread (week 1): 1-0
Straight up (week 1): 1-0
Game 1 – Dolphins at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 4
Our Line: Falcons by 9
Our Play: Falcons to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Atlanta thinks they are the best team in the NFC South, and for now we aren’t ones to disagree. Don’t expect them to come out flat in their home opener, and this year no one will be taking the rejuvenated Dolphins lightly.
Game 2 – Chiefs at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 13
Our Line: Ravens by 22
Our Play: Ravens to cover (1.5 units)
Spin: No one is putting any confidence in a lame Cassel or in backup QB Dwayne Bowe. Baltimore’s defense will be top notch as always and wouldn’t have a problem with Kansas City even if they were healthy. The sportbooks lines are all over the place, from the at Ravens -14 to -12.5 and everything in between. Look for a few people who hate double digit spreads to come back on the Chiefs Sunday morning, and see if a little patience can get you a line around Ravens -11 or -10.
Game 3 – Eagles at Panthers
Vegas Line: Eagles by 2.5
Our Line: Eagles by 7
Our Play: Eagles to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Vegas had some confidence in Carolina to start out the week, opening the spread at Panthers -1. The bettors quickly showed whose side they are on and the line has since moved to Eagles -2.5. We have a hard time seeing it move to spot the Eagles a full field goal on the road, but you never know. Everyone still has the Panthers playoff debacle still in their minds. Either way, we expect Philadelphia to flex their strength and show they are contending for the NFC Championship.
Game 4 – Broncos at Bengals
Vegas Line: Bengals by 5
Our Line: Bengals by 4
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Basically we think you should stay away from betting this game. Denver QB Orton has a busted up finger but should still start, whether that actually helps his team or not is anyone’s guess. We think the more consistent team will be Cincinnati who has a finally healthy QB Palmer to get the rest of the team’s adrenaline flowing. That being said this is the Bengals we’re talking about. There are better games out there to lay down your hard earned money on.
Game 5 – Vikings at Browns
Vegas Line: Vikings by 3.5
Our Line: Vikings by 2
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: The Vikings have an explosive offense and a tough run defense, and on paper should contend for the NFC Championship, but remember Brad Childress is their coach. The Browns aren’t all that exciting, but can certainly hold their own at home. Until Minnesota’s coach can prove he can make better use of his team’s weapons we are going to keep our money elsewhere.
Game 6 – Jets at Texans
Vegas Line: Houston by 4.5
Our Line: Jets by 6
Our Play: Jets to Cover (1.25 units), Jets to win (.25 units)
Spin: We are surprised how much people are underestimating the Jets here. Yes Sanchez is a rookie, but this offense has a lot of weapons in good form to help him out. The Houston offense is looking very capable as always, but their defense will still have its hands full. We’re expecting a fairly high scoring affair with a few untimely turnovers by the Texans offense to give the reigns and the win to the Jets.
Game 7 – Jaguars at Colts
Vegas Line: Colts by 7
Our Line: Colts by 16
Our Play: Colts to cover (1.0 units)
Spin: Last year Chicago waltzed in to new Lucas Oil Stadium and gave Indianapolis a beating. We don’t think that will be the case again this year. Manning much like Favre in his heyday can turn any group of receivers into pro bowlers. David Garrard, not so much. Expect the Colts to have a strong game on both sides of the ball come Sunday.
Game 8 – Lions at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 13.5
Our Line: Saints by 7
Our Play: Lions to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Yes, we are looking for the Saints to underwhelm this Sunday. They still can’t find a way to keep their running backs healthy, and even when they did they haven’t exactly shined. The New Orleans passing attack is potent, but the real weakness of the Detroit defense is against the run. Don’t be surprised to see the Lions hang tough for most of this game.
Game 9 – Cowboys at Buccaneers
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 5
Our Line: Buccaneers by 8
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (1.25 units), Buccaneers to win (.25 units)
Spin: Obviously we are not sold on the Cowboys. Their defense is overrated, and the offense has never clicked the way it should, and we don’t see that starting up in week one on the road. Yes there has been a lot of turmoil in Tampa Bay, but this team still has some decent pieces to it. Giving the Cowboys that much on the road is a mistake by bettors that you should take advantage of (remember this line opened at Cowboys -3, so Vegas was much more tempered on their chances).
Game 10 – 49ers at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 6
Our Line: Cardinals by 3
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: San Francisco has been on the verge of becoming relevant for some time now, and the personnel is starting to come together for them. Arizona has some question marks, especially on defense. We think it is better to wait and see before putting money down on the Cards.
Game 11 – Redskins at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 6.5
Our Line: Giants by 12
Our Play: Giants to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Will Haynesworth be the answer for Washington to finally beat their New York rivals? We really don’t think it will be as easy as that, as we still expect the New York ground game to have success moving the football, especially with RB Jacobs looking healthy.
Game 12 – Rams at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Seahawks by 7.5
Our Line: Seahawks by 2
Our Play: Rams to cover (.25 units)
Spin: Yes the Rams have been terrible, but their offense is good enough to keep them in games. Seattle is still in disarray after a very ugly final season under coach Holmgren. Branch still isn’t healthy, and Julius Jones does not inspire us.
Game 13 – Bears at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 4
Our Line: Packers by 2
Our Play: Bears to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: We think Green Bay is the better team here, but with this rivalry happening in week 1 of the season, that is just too much uncertainty for us. We’ll see how well the Green Bay defense is able to stop Chicago RB Matt Forte before putting our green on the Pack.
Game 14 – Bills at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 10.5
Our Line: Patriots by 12
Our Play: Patriots to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: A lot of people think Brady and the Patriots will come out looking to run up the score to let everyone know they are ready to play like the team of 2007. We think the Patriot offense should be clicking, but have enough respect for the Bills up and coming offense to keep us from laying out money on a double digit spread here.
Game 15 – Chargers at Raiders
Vegas Line: Chargers by 9.5
Our Line: Chargers by 11
Our Play: Chargers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: The madness with Merriman seems to be over, and we expect San Diego to come out focused on football. Its hard to have a lot of faith in the Raiders these days, and until they show some consistency we won’t be putting money on them even with hefty two score spreads.
SUMMARY
Ravens to cover (1.5 units)
Jets to Cover (1.25 units), Jets to win (.25 units)
Buccaneers to cover (1.25 units), Buccaneers to win (.25 units)
Colts to cover (1.0 units)
Eagles to cover (.25 units)
Giants to cover (.25 units)
Rams to cover (.25 units)
Lions to cover (.25 units)
Falcons to cover (.25 units)
Total: 6.75 units
