You are currently browsing the category archive for the 'NFL picks and predictions' category.
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +0.86
Units (last week): -0.89
Against the Spread (season): 52-64
Against the Spread (last week): 6-7
Straight up (season): 80-36
Straight up (last week): 7-6
Game 1 – Chiefs at Jaguars
Vegas Line: Jaguars by 6.5
Our Line: Jaguars by 7
Our Play: Jaguars to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Ravens at Bengals
Vegas Line: Ravens by 3
Our Line: Bengals by 2
Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 3 – Texans at Colts
Vegas Line: Colts by 9
Our Line: Colts by 7
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 4 – Redskins at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 10
Our Line: Falcons by 6
Our Play: Redskins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 5 – Packers at Buccaneers
Vegas Line: Packers by 10
Our Line: Packers by 5
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Cardinals at Bears
Vegas Line: Bears by 3
Our Line: Bears by 4
Our Play: Bears to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – Dolphins at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 10.5
Our Line: Patriots by 4
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.75 units)
Spin:
Game 8 – Panthers at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 13.5
Our Line: Saints by 9
Our Play: Panthers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 9 – Lions at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Seahawks by 10
Our Line: Seahawks by 7
Our Play: Lions to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Titans at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 4
Our Line: 49ers by 5
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Chargers at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 5
Our Line: Giants by 4
Our Play: Chargers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Cowboys at Eagles
Vegas Line: Eagles by 3
Our Line: Eagles by 2
Our Play: Cowboys to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Steelers at Broncos
Vegas Line: Steelers by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 12
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.50 units), Broncos to win (2.50 units)
Spin: Game of the Year. We are 7-1 so far in our Game of the Week selections (our only loss coming with Washington failing to cover against Philadelphia in week 7). The Steelers are on a mini roll right now with their victory over Minnesota followed with a bye, giving them a week off to prepare for the AFC West leading Broncos. Combine this along with the return of Troy Polomalu and that they are the defending Super Bowl champions, and you find that the public has now completely forgotten about the very poor start this team had. They almost lost to the Titans, and more importantly have lost to the Bears and Bengals on the road. Why is that significant other than being on the road at Denver?
- Tennessee #31 defense at home – Win 13-10
- at Chicago #11 defense – Loss 14-17
- at Cincinnati #12 defense – Loss 20-23
- San Diego #19 at home – Win 38-28
- at Detroit #29 defense – Win 28-20
- Cleveland #32 defense at home – Win 27-14
- Minnesota #21 defense at home – Win 27-17
- at Denver #1 defense
And trust us, Denver is a better team than either Chicago or Cincinnati. Yes there are some concerns with injuries on Denver’s side, especially with RT Ryan Harris, who will not be playing. His replacement Tyler Polumbus did an admirable job last week against the Ravens, and should hold his own this week against the Steelers.
Game 14 – N/A
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Game 15 – N/A
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Game 16 – N/A
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SUMMARY
Broncos to cover (0.50 units), Broncos to win (2.50 units)
Dolphins to cover (0.75 units)
Bengals to cover (0.25 units)
Panthers to cover (0.25 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 4.5 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +1.80
Units (last week): -4.75
Against the Spread (season): 46-57
Against the Spread (last week): 3-10
Straight up (season): 73-30
Straight up (last week): 9-4
Game 1 – Broncos at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 5
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.75 units), Broncos to win (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Browns at Bears
Vegas Line: Bears by 13.5
Our Line: Bears by 7
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.75 units)
Spin:
Game 3 – Texans at Bills
Vegas Line: Texans by 3.5
Our Line: Texans by 2
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 4 – Vikings at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 3
Our Line: Packers by 2
Our Play: Vikings to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 5 – 49ers at Colts
Vegas Line: Colts by 12.5
Our Line: Colts by 7
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Dolphins at Jets
Vegas Line: Jets by 3.5
Our Line: Jets by 5
Our Play: Jets to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – Rams at Lions
Vegas Line: Lions by 4
Our Line: Lions by 5
Our Play: Lions to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 8 – Seahawks at Cowboys
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 9.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 8
Our Play: Seahawks to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 9 – Oakland at San Diego
Vegas Line: San Diego by 16.5
Our Line: San Diego by 6
Our Play: Oakland to cover (1.25 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Jaguars at Titans
Vegas Line: Titans by 3
Our Line: Jaguars by 3
Our Play: Jaguars to cover (0.25 units), Jaguars to win (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Panther at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 10
Our Line: Cardinals by 7
Our Play: Panthers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Giants at Eagles
Vegas Line: Giants by 1
Our Line: Eagles by 1
Our Play: Eagles to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Falcons at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 10.5
Our Line: Saints by 8
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.0 units)
Spin: Game of the week.
Game 14 – N/A
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Game 15 – N/A
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Game 16 – N/A
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SUMMARY
Oakland to cover (1.25 units)
Broncos to cover (0.75 units), Broncos to win (0.25 units)
Browns to cover (0.75 units)
Jaguars to cover (0.25 units), Jaguars to win (0.25 units)
49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 3.75
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +6.55
Units (last week): +0.82
Against the Spread (season): 43-47
Against the Spread (last week): 7-7
Straight up (season): 64-26
Straight up (last week): 9-5
Game 1 – Chargers at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Chargers by 5
Our Line: Chargers by 1
Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Colts at Rams
Vegas Line: Colts by 13.5
Our Line: Colts by 7
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.75 units)
Spin:
Game 3 – Bears at Bengals
Vegas Line: Bengals by PK
Our Line: Bengals by 4
Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 4 – Packers at Browns
Vegas Line: Packers by 9
Our Line: Packers by 2
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: This line has been a bit of madness. It opened at Green Bay -7 for about a day depending on your sportsbook, then got removed completely. Now it is reopening at Green Bay -9, and already some -10’s are popping up. We are guessing that the public came out hammering the Packers a lot harder than Vegas had anticipated. A lot of people were calling this their lock of the week or month. We are solidly if not enthusiastically on the other side. The Browns offense has been terrible of late, but they are still managing to stay in games and covered on the road at Pittsburgh just last week. We think they will continue to play better, and their offense will find enough success to stay in this game.
Game 5 – Vikings at Steelers
Vegas Line: Steelers by 5.5
Our Line: Vikings by 1
Our Play: Vikings to cover (0.75 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Patriots vs Buccaneers (Game played in London)
Vegas Line: Patriots by 15
Our Line: Patriots by 6
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – 49ers at Texans
Vegas Line: Texans by 3
Our Line: Texans by 4
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 8 – Jets at Raiders
Vegas Line: Jets by 6
Our Line: Jets by 1
Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.50 units)
Spin:
Game 9 – Bills at Panthers
Vegas Line: Panthers by 7
Our Line: Panthers by 4
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Saints at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Saints by 6.5
Our Line: Saints by 3
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Falcons at Cowboys
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 4
Our Line: Cowboys by 2
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Cardinals at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 7
Our Line: Giants by 5
Our Play: Cardinals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Eagles at Redskins
Vegas Line: Eagles by 7
Our Line: Redskins by 2
Our Play: Redskins to cover (1.0 units)
Spin: Game of the week.
Game 14 – N/A
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Game 15 – N/A
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Game 16 – N/A
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SUMMARY
Redskins to cover (1.0 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Browns to cover (0.75 units)
Vikings to cover (0.75 units)
Rams to cover (0.75 units)
Raiders to cover (0.50 units)
Chiefs to cover (0.25 units)
Total: 4.75 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +5.73
Units (last week): +2.61
Against the Spread (season): 36-40
Against the Spread (last week): 6-8
Straight up (season): 55-21
Straight up (last week): 9-5
Game 1 – Chiefs at Redskins
Vegas Line: Redskins by 6.5
Our Line: Redskins by 9
Our Play: Redskins to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Texans at Bengals
Vegas Line: Bengals by 4.5
Our Line: Bengals by 7
Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 3 – Browns at Steelers
Vegas Line: Steelers by 14
Our Line: Steelers by 8
Our Play: Browns to cover (0.50 units)
Spin: We were surprised to see this line open as high as Pittsburgh -13.5, and have been even more surprised to see it rise to -14 with a random -15 popping up here and there. Pittsburgh has not been covering spreads as of late, and a full 2 TD spread for them to cover should get you a little excited. The Browns are coming off their first win, and despite giving up massive amounts of rushing yards have found a way to keep opposing teams out of the end zone.
Game 4 – Ravens at Vikings
Vegas Line: Vikings by 3
Our Line: Vikings by 8
Our Play: Vikings to cover (0.50 units)
Spin: There appears to be a pretty good amount of love out there for Baltimore, as there are several Minnesota -2.5 lines showing up, and the ones at -3 have some pretty good odds attached to them. Given that we advise waiting until Saturday evening or so, and see if you can get Minnesota at -2 or better. The Ravens are known for their defense and the Vikings for their run game, but we think things will be flipped around come Sunday. We see the Minnesota defense making the big plays and important stops, allowing Favre to keep his team ahead by more than a TD.
Game 5 – Rams at Jaguars
Vegas Line: Jaguars by 9.5
Our Line: Jaguars by 7
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Giants at Saints
Vegas Line: Saints by 3
Our Line: Saints by 5
Our Play: Saints to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – Panthers at Buccaneers
Vegas Line: Panthers by 3
Our Line: Panthers by 1
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 8 – Lions at Packers
Vegas Line: Packers by 13.5
Our Line: Packers by 7
Our Play: Lions to cover (0.50 units)
Spin: The Packers are traditionally a public favorite, and the line is showing that here. This game opened at Green Bay -11.5 and quickly shot up to -13.5 with a few -14’s coming about. Detroit is not as bad as they were last year, but most bettors still seem to think they are. Detroit can run the ball fairly well, and have a defense that has been able to keep them in games. We like their chances of hanging with Green Bay this weekend.
Game 9 – Eagles at Raiders
Vegas Line: Eagles by 14
Our Line: Eagles by 3
Our Play: Raiders to cover (1.0 units)
Spin: Yes, Oakland to cover is our game of the week. The Raiders aren’t nearly as bad as the scores have been the last few weeks, and you should also take into account that the Giants are a much better team than Philadelphia is at the moment. The Raiders are coming off of two tough road games in a row, and see them playing a much better game at home. We’re expecting to see RB Bush and QB Russell have success moving the football, and you should feel confident in betting them to stay within two touchdowns of Philadelphia.
Game 10 – Cardinals at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Seahawks by 3
Our Line: Seahawks by 4
Our Play: Seahawks to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 11 – Bills at Jets
Vegas Line: Jets by 9.5
Our Line: Jets by 7
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Titans at Patriots
Vegas Line: Patriots by 9.5
Our Line: Patriots by 9
Our Play: Titans to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 13 – Bears at Falcons
Vegas Line: Falcons by 3
Our Line: Falcons by 6
Our Play: Falcons to cover (0.0 units)
Spin:
Game 14 – Broncos at Chargers
Vegas Line: Chargers by 3.5
Our Line: Broncos by 3
Our Play: Broncos to cover (0.50 units)
Spin: There is a little public love finally showing up for Denver as this line opened up at San Diego -4, and usually San Diego is a pretty big public favorite, so the line moving in the other direction says something about how the public views Denver. The Broncos are our top ranked team in the NFL, and also boast the number 1 defense. You should take advantage while bettors and Vegas are still adjusting to how good of a team Denver is.
Game 15 – N/A
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Spin:
Game 16 – N/A
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Spin:
SUMMARY
Raiders to cover (1.0 units)
Broncos to cover (0.50 units)
Lions to cover (0.50 units)
Browns to cover (0.50 units)
Vikings to cover (0.50 units)
Total Units: 3.00 units
Picks from Inside the Numbers
Units (season): +3.12
Units (last week): +0.14
Against the Spread (season): 30-32
Against the Spread (last week): 7-7
Straight up (season): 46-16
Straight up (last week): 13-1
Game 1 – Vikings at Rams
Vegas Line: Vikings by 10
Our Line: Vikings by 7
Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 2 – Cowboys at Chiefs
Vegas Line: Cowboys by 8.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 2
Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: Dallas has not been the best road team so far this year, giving up 21 points to the win-less Buccaneers in week one, and also losing last week on the road in Denver. Kansas City is still struggling to play as a unit this year, but they still aren’t an easy knockout at home. Dallas is still dealing with a few injuries as RB Felix Jones, and WR Roy Williams are both expected to miss this Sunday’s game. There are a few Dallas -9 lines popping up, and you should feel free to take advantage.
Game 3 – Redskins at Panthers
Vegas Line: Panthers by 3.5
Our Line: Redskins by 2
Our Play: Redskins to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 4 – Buccaneers at Eagles
Vegas Line: Eagles by 15
Our Line: Eagles by 8
Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: First off, you should be worried about any team being able to cover a two TD+ spread, even if they are hosting the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We know the Eagles are coming off of a bye and have a healthier QB McNabb and RB Westbrook, but teams coming off a bye don’t historically perform as well as people think. Tampa Bay will be looking to run the ball frequently, and the Eagles run defense hasn’t been as boorish as they were in recent years. Look for Philadelphia to have firm control of the game, but for Tampa Bay to move the ball well enough to stay within two touchdowns of the lead.
Game 5 – Raiders at Giants
Vegas Line: Giants by 15.5
Our Line: Giants by 10
Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 6 -Browns at Bills
Vegas Line: Bills by 6
Our Line: Bills by 6
Our Play: Bills to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 7 – Bengals at Ravens
Vegas Line: Ravens by 8.5
Our Line: Ravens by 1
Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.75 units)
Spin: We have been a big fan of Baltimore this year, and usually are on their side to cover. But this line is failing to give credit to a pretty good Cincinnati team. The Bengals defense is actually allowing fewer points than the Ravens, and you should be taking that into strong consideration with this line. Cincinnati already has a good win on the road at Green Bay, and should threaten to pick up another one this weekend. Bet them with confidence.
Game 8 – Steelers at Lions
Vegas Line: Steelers by 10.5
Our Line: Steelers by 1
Our Play: Lions to cover (1.25 units)
Spin: Pittsburgh ran all over San Diego last week, racking up close to 200 yards on the ground. That is nothing new for San Diego, who has allowed over 125 yards rushing on defense in all of their games this year. While Detroit isn’t nearly as bad that on defense, and have played quite well at home this year. Pittsburgh has yet to win on the road, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati. Even if Daunte Culpepper starts for Detroit at QB, we really like their chances of covering 10pts and change at home.
Game 9 – Falcons at 49ers
Vegas Line: 49ers by 2.5
Our Line: 49ers by 7
Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 10 – Patriots at Broncos
Vegas Line: Patriots by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 7
Our Play: Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)
Spin: Early in the year we rode the New York Jets bandwagon, as the public and Vegas vastly underestimated their capabilities. The same now applies to the Denver Broncos. We really liked them last week against Dallas, and like them even more at home against New England. Denver’s well rounded defense should have success containing Brady and Moss, and will likely create a turnover or two to aid their team’s cause. In New England’s one road trip this year they managed to put up only 9 points on the board, and we are looking for a similar performance here. This is our game of the week.
Game 11 – Texans at Cardinals
Vegas Line: Cardinals by 5.5
Our Line: Cardinals by 2
Our Play: Texans to cover (0.25 units)
Spin:
Game 12 – Jaguars at Seahawks
Vegas Line: Line not available yet
Our Line: Jaguars by 2
Our Play:
Spin:
Game 13 – Colts at Titans
Vegas Line: Colts by 3.5
Our Line: Colts by 3
Our Play: Titans to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 14 – Jets at Dolphins
Vegas Line: Jets by 1.5
Our Line: Dolphins by 1
Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.00 units)
Spin:
Game 15 – N/A
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Game 16 – N/A
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Spin:
SUMMARY
Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)
Lions to cover (1.25 units)
Bengals to cover (0.75 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)
Redskins to cover (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Texans to cover (0.25 units)
Total Units: 6.25 units
