Picks from Inside the Numbers

Units (season): +3.12
Units (last week): +0.14
Against the Spread (season): 30-32
Against the Spread (last week): 7-7
Straight up (season): 46-16
Straight up (last week): 13-1

Game 1 – Vikings at Rams

Vegas Line: Vikings by 10
Our Line: Vikings by 7

Our Play: Rams to cover (0.25 units)

Spin:

Game 2 – Cowboys at Chiefs

Vegas Line: Cowboys by 8.5
Our Line: Cowboys by 2

Our Play: Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)

Spin: Dallas has not been the best road team so far this year, giving up 21 points to the win-less Buccaneers in week one, and also losing last week on the road in Denver. Kansas City is still struggling to play as a unit this year, but they still aren’t an easy knockout at home. Dallas is still dealing with a few injuries as RB Felix Jones, and WR Roy Williams are both expected to miss this Sunday’s game. There are a few Dallas -9 lines popping up, and you should feel free to take advantage.

Game 3 – Redskins at Panthers

Vegas Line: Panthers by 3.5
Our Line: Redskins by 2

Our Play: Redskins to cover (0.25 units)

Spin:

Game 4 – Buccaneers at Eagles

Vegas Line: Eagles by 15
Our Line: Eagles by 8

Our Play: Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)

Spin: First off, you should be worried about any team being able to cover a two TD+ spread, even if they are hosting the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We know the Eagles are coming off of a bye and have a healthier QB McNabb and RB Westbrook, but teams coming off a bye don’t historically perform as well as people think. Tampa Bay will be looking to run the ball frequently, and the Eagles run defense hasn’t been as boorish as they were in recent years. Look for Philadelphia to have firm control of the game, but for Tampa Bay to move the ball well enough to stay within two touchdowns of the lead.

Game 5 – Raiders at Giants

Vegas Line: Giants by 15.5
Our Line: Giants by 10

Our Play: Raiders to cover (0.25 units)

Spin:

Game 6 -Browns at Bills

Vegas Line: Bills by 6
Our Line: Bills by 6

Our Play: Bills to cover (0.00 units)

Spin:

Game 7 – Bengals at Ravens

Vegas Line: Ravens by 8.5
Our Line: Ravens by 1

Our Play: Bengals to cover (0.75 units)

Spin: We have been a big fan of Baltimore this year, and usually are on their side to cover. But this line is failing to give credit to a pretty good Cincinnati team. The Bengals defense is actually allowing fewer points than the Ravens, and you should be taking that into strong consideration with this line. Cincinnati already has a good win on the road at Green Bay, and should threaten to pick up another one this weekend. Bet them with confidence.

Game 8 – Steelers at Lions

Vegas Line: Steelers by 10.5
Our Line: Steelers by 1

Our Play: Lions to cover (1.25 units)

Spin: Pittsburgh ran all over San Diego last week, racking up close to 200 yards on the ground. That is nothing new for San Diego, who has allowed over 125 yards rushing on defense in all of their games this year. While Detroit isn’t nearly as bad that on defense, and have played quite well at home this year. Pittsburgh has yet to win on the road, losing to Chicago and Cincinnati. Even if Daunte Culpepper starts for Detroit at QB, we really like their chances of covering 10pts and change at home.

Game 9 – Falcons at 49ers

Vegas Line: 49ers by 2.5
Our Line: 49ers by 7

Our Play: 49ers to cover (0.25 units)

Spin:

Game 10 – Patriots at Broncos

Vegas Line: Patriots by 3
Our Line: Broncos by 7

Our Play: Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)

Spin: Early in the year we rode the New York Jets bandwagon, as the public and Vegas vastly underestimated their capabilities. The same now applies to the Denver Broncos. We really liked them last week against Dallas, and like them even more at home against New England. Denver’s well rounded defense should have success containing Brady and Moss, and will likely create a turnover or two to aid their team’s cause. In New England’s one road trip this year they managed to put up only 9 points on the board, and we are looking for a similar performance here. This is our game of the week.

Game 11 – Texans at Cardinals

Vegas Line: Cardinals by 5.5
Our Line: Cardinals by 2

Our Play: Texans to cover (0.25 units)

Spin:

Game 12 – Jaguars at Seahawks

Vegas Line: Line not available yet
Our Line: Jaguars by 2

Our Play:

Spin:

Game 13 – Colts at Titans

Vegas Line: Colts by 3.5
Our Line: Colts by 3

Our Play: Titans to cover (0.00 units)

Spin:

Game 14 – Jets at Dolphins

Vegas Line: Jets by 1.5
Our Line: Dolphins by 1

Our Play: Dolphins to cover (0.00 units)

Spin:

Game 15 – N/A

Vegas Line:
Our Line:

Our Play:

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Game 16 – N/A

Vegas Line:
Our Line:

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Spin:

SUMMARY

Broncos to cover (1.00 units), Broncos to win (0.50 units)
Lions to cover (1.25 units)
Bengals to cover (0.75 units)
Buccaneers to cover (0.75 units)
Chiefs to cover (0.75 units)
Redskins to cover (0.25 units)
Raiders to cover (0.25 units)
49ers to cover (0.25 units)
Rams to cover (0.25 units)
Texans to cover (0.25 units)

Total Units: 6.25 units