Hello ABW readers. I have been browsing the forums out there, and have come across countless amounts of madness going on over the Buffalo at Miami game this week. The hullaballoo is really over the Vegas line, which currently sits at Buffalo -1. If you have been following the NFL this year, right away the line probably makes you scratch your head. Buffalo’s record is 5-1 while Miami’s is only 2-4, so why is the line so tight? This is a classic ‘Fading the Public’ game for people who make Odds based predictions. Basically the line looks off, so a large portion of the public bets on one side, in this case Buffalo. These Odds based bettors see all that action on Buffalo and the wierd line and think, “This can’t be right, if Buffalo wins, Vegas will lose a bunch of money. Vegas is smart, and always wins, so that must mean Miami is going to win this game.” Before I get going on the ins and out of ‘Fading the Public’ lets take a look at some posts on this topic.

From covers.com forums : http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100264113

Skip the posts and get to the major point, and the prediction for the BUF @ MIA game!

(my comments in italics)

Post #1

“When vegas puts a line on a game like Jets -3 at Oakland (NFL week 7) they are begging for Jets money. Colts -1 at GB (NFL week 7) begging for Colts money. This week its 5-1  Buffalo at 2-4 Miami. The line? The Bills -5? No…..The line comes at Bills-1! They are begging for Bills takers, and the public will take them at  huge levels. Guessing between 75-90 percent, this makes the play the Miami Dolphins”

(Ok, so we know the line is weird, and that Vegas doesn’t lose, so that must mean Miami is the play)

Post #2

“One thing you always hear around sports betting circles is “All Vegas wants is equal action on both sides” Well if that’s what they want then how come these games keep showing up with 80 to 90 percent action on one side? I have NEVER believed that bullshit. They set you up with their lines.   They want to sucker the unwise in and they do it very successfully.”

(Ok, so Vegas doesn’t want equal action on both sides because Vegas is almost 100% sure the public will be wrong on this game and wants to trap them into taking the wrong side. They aren’t worried about the underdog losing, because Vegas knows the dog is going to win)

Post #3

“Don’t tap the glass!!!!!”

(What? more on this later it actually reveals something important)

Post #4

“I think he means don’t tell everyone the system! (referring to post #3) Like tappin a wine glass to make an announcement, LOL. Seriously not sure why people give you so much crap when all you are trying to do is share what works for you. I think it pisses people off because if true it would prove they have little chance of outhandicapping Vegas consistently.”

(Oh ok, so ‘Don’t tap the glass means’ don’t let out the secret that Vegas does try to trap the public with weird lines that don’t make sense. That way only a few of will make a profit and we won’t jeopardize moving the line in the opposite direction we want by giving out the secret of ‘Fading the Public’)

(Let’s do a quick summary. Agreed line on Buffalo @ Miami is weird. Using released information from bookies/casinos we can see the Public is predictably hopping all over Buffalo, with a very large majority of the bets being placed on the Bills to win/cover. If Buffalo does indeed win this game, Vegas would then lose a bunch of money, which doesn’t make sense since everyone agrees that Vegas always wins. So following that line of thought, Vegas must know Miami is actually going to win, and is suckering in the public’s money with the wierd line)

Post #5

“They arent aiming for 50% of the bets on both sides. They’re aiming for 50% of the money on both sides. That why they (Vegas/Casinos/Bookies) are guaranteed winners.”

(I thought we had this settled already)

Post #6

“Have you ever visited an aquarium or a zoo, and noticed the signs that ask you not to knock on the glass????? This is to avoid disturbing the animals within.

Don’t tap the glass, it disturbs the fish…….”

(Hmm, thought this was settled too, what are you trying to say?)

Post #7

“It is when the line refuses to budge or actually goes the other way that you ask yourself why is it , that more money is going the opposite way of most money?”

(Referring to movement in the line. If the public is pounding the bills with the majority of bets (over 80%), then the line should move from BUF -1 to BUF -1.5/-2/-2.5. Since it hasn’t moved, again we wonder what Vegas is up to? They must want the bets to continue to pour onto Buffalo since they seem to know Miami is going to win. Right?)

Post #8
“sigh… some people will never learn…it is simple mathematics… if you are getting a vig (getting a cut on the wagers made, i.e. rake), you win money simply by getting equal action, regardless of who wins… and the guy who pointed out that you are a sucker if you are believing the public % numbers the books are giving you… was dead on!  if this information could be used AGAINST the books, why would they give it to you?  because they are generous? simpletons… gotta love ‘em…”

(Ok, things are beginning to get confusing. So Vegas does want equal action? Also, why would they release the % of bets made on a team to the public if it made the public win more money? That certainly does not follow the logic that Vegas always wins)

Post #9

“and they don’t need to sucker people with bad lines… people are suckers to begin with and don’t know how to handicap the games… if a line looks fishy, it’s because you don’t know what the correct line should be, and they do…”

(hmm, yes that is an interesting point)

Post #10

“By Steve Schorr, Tahoe Tribune correspondent

Early Sunday morning, as gamblers flood the sports books, a group of Las Vegas-based ’sports junkies’ are cooking up the lines for the following week’s NFL matchups.

Roxy Roxborough, former owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was asked what it takes to be an oddsmaker.

‘I’ve always believed that any odds making brew includes parts of both art and science,’ Roxborough said. ‘The degree to which each ingredient appears depends on who’s stirring the pot. The guys setting the lines are all individuals, with their own preferences and procedures, but everyone has to take both aspects of oddsmaking into account.’

LVSC odds manager Cesar Robaina, a believer in the intuitive school of oddsmaking, stated, ‘Not all sports are the same, but when it comes to the NFL, I sort of feel the number. I then pull out the stat book and validate the number by checking the power ratings, betting patterns and other hard data to make sure everything makes sense.

‘In the NFL, where the public really gets involved, you can get a feel for the number pretty easily. There are other areas, such as college football and NBA totals, where professional gamblers have been particularly successful that you have to look at the mathematical approach a little more.’

The meeting of the sports junky minds begins on Sundays at approximately 4:15 p.m. Five guys push their desks together, forming an octagon, as they pore over the upcoming contests.

Game by game, each oddsmaker discusses his theory on the correct point spread. After consideration of each individual’s opinion, a line is set and the numbers are shipped off to the Las Vegas Stardust where management, along with outside consultants, review the numbers, make adjustments and then post the lines.

A group of bettors known as sharks or ‘Wise Guys’ draw straws to see who’s the lucky guy to make the first bets. These professionals then take turns betting the games, as the sports book personnel adjust the lines and attempt to balance the action. Betting continues until the last “Wise Guy” believes the numbers no longer offer him/her any value or advantage.

Monday mornings, linesmakers across the state begin putting up the numbers that reflect the opinion of the smartest players in the business, a group of individuals who attempt to make a living betting sports. As one Wise Guy said when it comes to posting the lines, ‘The early bird gets the number.’ Then again, as I am fond of telling all you ‘dog’ bettors, ‘The patient investor will be rewarded with the extra point.’”

(Aha! So that is how Vegas does it. This really makes sense, but definitely adds confusion to the validity of the ”Fading the Public” move.)

Post #11

“Ahh…the ALWAYS mistaken public consensus numbers for vegas’ books issue.

Greyhound i’d expect more from an allstar.  Getting even books at game time is their only motivation period!  No risk, just collect the vig.  That is how vegas wins year in and year out collegegambler…zero risk.  Now they do use their expertise to set a line to make sure the dumb public puts enough money to even the sharps’ money.  And its up to you to find that inflated line…thats where simply capping the game and not worrying about the consensus can yield you the same results…(CG all those games that you mention you won by fading the public…i won too, but didn’t look at the consensus numbers for one second.)

Lets get one thing straight, the consensus numbers are the number of bettors on a side, not a measure on which side has more money on it…we don’t know how the money is coming in…ever!  Those of you that put all this power in the consensus numbers from wagerline, vegasinsider, etc, must realize that is only the number of bets on a side not the amount of money!

Easy example: Lets say one guy puts 1 million on a side and 1000 ‘public’ people hammer the other side at 100 dollars a bet…the books still have an uneven book by 900k!…so they bump the line and all these people claim ‘look at the reverse line movement’ when nothing has changed (Bingo! remember post #7).

Simply cap the game and arrive at a spread you think is logical.  If the line your book gives you is way off, then hammer it, end of story.  Even better have multiple books to shop for the line that you think gives you the best edge.  If you cant follow that logic then quit gambling.

If you must use consensus numbers to help make your decision, a good rule of thumb would be to use it to convince yourself of a no play…in other words if you are on the same side as 80-100% of the consensus, then use that as a reason to not bet, and not a reason to take the other side.”

(Confused yet? This is some of the best advice on the thread, and really hits on the problems with ‘Fading the Public.’ Interestingly enough, most of the people advocating the Fade can only refer back to post #2, and keep calling it a trap. No one has anything new to offer to defend the theory. There are also quite a few threads that call out these 80% Fades as having a poor long term record, and no one has been able to dispute that. Currently it is believed they are 14-12 against the spread. Basically break even.)

Post #12

“‘Fading the Public’ is sooo right. I am a small sports investment broker(AKA bookmaker) with about 15 clients. Everytime I get everybody on one side; without question the side will lose at least 90 percent of the time. In fact, I have a guy who calls and asks me who everybody is on and he goes the other way. He has won overall in football three years in a row. Amazing but true.”

(Ok, now we have someone bringing up how the Fade works like magic again. No it doesn’t make sense, but apparantly it wins. Also is the possibility that he just has really dumb clients.)

Post #13

“Ah, a ‘line is what it is’ person. My kind of guy. Even my wife understands the concept of a line always being correct, that there is no such thing as a trap (except in the bettors’ own mind), and she doesn’t gamble! If, in the fourth quarter or in OT, Jamarcus Russell had dropped back to throw, been hit, ball pops loose and Jets scoop it up and return it for a TD, then the Jets win and cover and all the supposedly ‘trapped’ people would have won. A game straddling the spread is always one play away from being busted, by either side. Anyone who bet on Raiders-Jets was pretty much lucky/unlucky. They should have been on St. Louis or Carolina, sides who left no doubt. If people keep getting involved in games that straddle the spread till the end, they will win some, lose some, and be long-term 50-percenters. 50-percenters lose. The sportsbooks love long-term 50-percenters because they keep the sportsbook’s profits coming in.”

(More great advice. This also follows along strongly with Post #10)

Post #14

“Why do you believe the Fake % ???
Why is the Money Wagered not Released ???

that is the question none of these clowns ever ask? those numbers are intended to mislead people… they know people are simplistic thinkers, and can’t get beyond a big % number and an opposite line move…I am convinced some genius sportsbook manager is the one who came up with the idea to release these numbers, knowing that it would be one more way to sucker bettors looking for an easy way out…”

(Hitting another really strong point, and confirming the thoughts on Post #’s 5, 7, 8, 11)

Post #15

“(Referring to ‘don’t tap the glass’) Perfect. The best advice this poster ever got. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! They can swim in their big tank, their own little world. The sportsbooks come around six times a day to sprinkle feed on the surface and they are trained to rush up and peck at it. Why disturb artificial nature? Again, thank you!

(So maybe Vegas puts out lines that look like easy winners so you keep coming back each week. Or Maybe they have trained bettors to see these lines in a certain way and are now using reverse pyschology to get them to bet on the dog. For example, what if they had opened the line at -3 or -4 or even -5? Nothing fishy about that, and what would happen? Everyone would agree and pound Buffalo with bets, and no one would think twice about Miami. They don’t want that, so what do they do? Open at -1, everyone’s fish radar goes blaring crazy, and before you know it half the bettors out there are actually putting plenty of money on Miami. Hmmmmm)

END OF POSTS AND THREAD ON COVERS.COM

So what have we learned folks? Well lets try to break it down this way.

Assumption #1: Vegas is trying to use pyschology and schemes on the public in order to ‘trap’ them into incorrectly betting hard on a team Vegas knows will lose.

Reality: Judging from the above posts, and the other threads out there, Vegas doesn’t need to do any sort of pyschology scheming at all. We do that pretty well all by ourselves. Moreover, unless we are Vegas, we are never really going to know what they are up to.

Assumption #2: The perentage of bets going on one side of a wager is reliable information.

Reality: How one can assume that the very people who are trying to take the public’s money are going give the public information that will help them keep their money is beyond me.

Assumption #3: Vegas does not want the sides bet evenly at 50/50. Vegas knows with a very high accuracy which teams will win or lose, and hence are again trying to ‘trap’ the public into betting the wrong way.

Reality: If Vegas really was that good, then why would they only pay out 90% on a spread bet? Why not pay out 98% or even 99% so they could entice more people into betting? It just doesn’t make sense. They really do want even amounts of money on both sides, that way at a 90% payout they will always get their 10%. No risk, guaranteed money. That is what Vegas is about. Let’s put the nail in the coffin on this one. A little math here.

Say Vegas really does want the money on one side. We’ll keep nice round numbers in play. Say there is $100,000 dollars wagered in total on the Buffalo -1 vs. Miami +1 game. 80% of it gets bet on Buffalo, and 20% gets bet on Miami.

Bufflo = $80,000
Miami = $20,000

So what happens if Buffalo covers?

Using the standard -110 odds:
-$80,000 (pay public their original bets back)
-$72,727 (pay public the winnings from betting on Buffalo)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= -$52,717 (Owed to the public when Buffalo covers)

If Miami wins?
-$20,000 (pay public their original bets back)
-$18,182 (pay public the winnings from betting on Miami)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= $61,818 (Profit won by Vegas if Miami covers)

So how many times does Miami have to win in order for Vegas to break even?

$52,717/$61,818 = .85 times
Since you cannot win .85 times, you either win/lose/push, that means Miami has to win 3 out every 7 times for Vegas to make a profit of $25,453. Vegas has to be 42% sure that 2-4 Miami is going to essentially defeat 5-1 Buffalo. This is almost laughable, and not a good way to run a business.

What happens if $50,000 is wagered on each team?

-$50,000 (pay public their original winning bets back regardless who wins)
-$45,455 (pay public the winnings from betting on the winner)
+$100,000 (the money they received from wagers)
= $4,545 (Profit won no matter who wins/covers)

So over the course of 7 games, Vegas would win $31,818 no matter who won the game! Even if Buffalo won/covered all seven contests, or vice versa, Vegas gets more profit. This is how you run a business! Absolutely Vegas wants 50% of the money on each side (they could care less about the % of bets) so not only do they get more profit, they are more consistent. This really kills any ‘trap’ theory out there. It is your job to make sure you have handicapped the game correctly, and it Vegas’ job to make sure they get the same amount of MONEY on each side.

Assumption #4: If a line is weird/fishy/confusing to you, then the best play is often to not make one.

Reality: This makes complete sense. If you don’t understand electrical wiring, do you try and fix a faulty switch? If you don’t understand how motors are built do you try and fix your car yourself? Plumbing? No you don’t. Stay away from lines that don’t make any sense to you and stick to the ones that do. This will really help your betting in the long run.

Assumption #5: The best way to make a wager is to handicap the line yourself before you even look at the Vegas line, then make a decision based off of comparing your line to the current or expected Vegas line.

Reality: This works if you have a history of handicapping games well. If you don’t have a history of doing so, then you may need to get some help from another handicapper you trust. It is very likely the decision they came to was made by creating their own line and then comparing it to the Vegas line. Keep track of your results, and always keep looking for ways to improve how you handicap games.

Since we have talked so much about this game, I will post Inside the Numbers pick on this game as a little bonus. Good luck everyone on their bets, either way you go.

Buffalo:
ITN overall rank: #4
Win Grade (team fundamentals) rank: #4
Real Points (strength of schedule) rank: #6
Notes week 8: A healthy Edwards at QB makes for a very healthy Bills offense. He may not be league MVP, but he’s certainly the Bills’. Meanwhile the rest of the team continues to be efficient, ranking in the top ten in kickoff yards allowed, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down %, and in penalties.

Miami:
ITN overall rank: #20
Win Grade (team fundamentals) rank: #24
Real Points (strength of schedule) rank: #17
Notes week 8: Taking one of the last two games would have really helped Miami’s chances of finishing above .500, as they have a favorable second half schedule. Their inability to stop the pass has to take most of the blame for those losses.

Game Review:

Outside of this being a home game, there is little to Miami’s advantage in this matchup. Buffalo has the means to limit Brown and the Wildcat offense, much like Baltimore did last week. Our rankings don’t see much weakness in Buffalo either, with the only marks against them being that Win Grade (team fundamentals) shows them as playing just slightly better than they probably are. As far as the host team goes, our system certainly sees them as underrated and underplaying the level they are capable of, but unfortunately for them their opponent in this game is too strong for that potential to be realized.  Look for Edwards to have another solid day, and for the Buffalo secondary to give the Miami aerial attack fits, forcing Miami into a predictable offensive plan that has trouble putting points on the board.

Our line: Buffalo by 9
Buffalo to win confidence: 72%
Buffalo to cover confidence: 69%

Tags: | | |