In order for this page to make much sense to you, I suggest you browse through these two links first, since they are what sparked the topic. Greatest offense of the modern era debate | The greatest offenses of the modern era
I think the heart of the matter comes down to asking, what makes an offense great, or really, what is the goal of an offense?
The obvious answer is to help their team win. Ok, but how? When an offense steps on the field, is their goal to gain as many yards as possible? Or to gain as many yards per play? I don’t think it’s either. I would even argue that their goal isn’t to score as many points as possible. I think great offenses step on the field with the goal of creating the largest margin of points scored as possible for their team. It’s not just that you score; it’s also how you score. This is where offensive balance, knowing your teams strengths and weaknesses, time of possession, and controlling the flow of the game come into play.
If a team knows they have a poor defense that has problems getting off the field, does it make sense to score as quickly as possible, putting that terrible D back on the field with little rest? (this is the mentality behind achieving a high points per play average) Again, I don’t think so. Doing so would put the clock in the other team’s hands, and wear down your defense even more throughout the game. Not to mention over the season, which I imagine would lead to fatigue and leave players more prone to injury. If you really posses an offense that can score at will, why wouldn’t you put your run game to work more, leave your opponents defense on the field for longer periods of time, which would rest your defense while breaking down theirs? I’m pretty sure coaches have thought of this, and have had to make decisions based on scenarios similar to the following.
Over 12 games
Team A’s offense scores 30ppg, has 300ypg passing, and 100ypg rushing
Team A’s defense gives up 25ppg
Team A’s time of possession is 29 minutes per game
After breaking down the 12 games, team A realized that when
Team A’s offense scores 28ppg, has 250ypg passing, and 125ypg rushing
Team A’s Defense gives up 21ppg
Team A’s time of possession becomes 31 minutes per game
They have scored fewer points overall and average fewer yards, but have increased their scoring margin over their opponents by 2 points.
Yes that is a totally hypothetical scenario, but I’m confident this has actually happened many times in the NFL. I’m guessing this is why we constantly hear about’ balanced attacks’ and ‘balanced play calling’.
I think after winning the Super Bowl in 1999 the Rams fell too far in love with their passing offense, left their running game behind and put pressure on what would be a poor defense. They lost the balance that both the ’99 and ’01 Rams had, and it showed. Can the greatest offense of all time really not have been capable of winning one playoff game? Regardless of how bad their defense was, if the offense was so great I think they should be able to win a playoff game.
I point to the 2001 Rams as the greatest offense because they had great stats, including yards per play, and points per play (3rd Best since 1990 in yards per play, and 6th best in points per play). But they didn’t get those numbers by sacrificing time of possession or a balanced offensive attack. Their time of possession was 32 minutes a game, which is over a full minute better than the ’00 Rams and more than three minutes better than the ’04 Colts. They produced the best balanced offensive stats ever, being the only team to rush over 2,000 yards, pass over 4,500 yards, and score over 500 points in the regular season.
And just to be more psycho than I already am, I broke down the methods of ranking great offensive teams. I thought of it as: If you had such a great offense in the regular season, and your offensive goal is to help your team win, prove it in the post season. (If your offensive goal is something other than to help your team win, then I have no idea what to say)
I took the top 20 from each method, and recorded how many post season victories each had, and whether or not they won the super bowl.
1. Yards per Play -(YardPP)
2. Points per Play – (PtsPP)
3. Combined Yards per Play and Points per Play – (YardPtsPP)
4. Best combo of rush yards, pass yards, and points scored. No consideration for competition or rule changes – (BC w/o consideration)
5. Best combo of rush yards, pass yards, and points scored. Consideration taken for competition and rule changes – (BC with consideration)
YardPP: 19 wins, 2 SB’s
PtsPP: 26 wins, 4 SB’s
YardsPtsPP: 26 wins, 4 SB’s
BC w/o: 27 wins, 4 SB’s
BC with: 30 wins, 5 SB’s
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Tags: nfl rankings | nfl offense | football rankings | football offense | great football offense | best NFL offense | greatest NFL offense





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August 28, 2008 at 9:14 am
WARNING: Those NFL rankings you are looking at are worthless « A bettor wager
[...] In my last post, I invited people to join in on a debate of the greatest offense of the modern era. Myself and some others were going back and forth on the thread, when someone passed on a link to The Best NFL Offense of the last 30 years. Perfect! The blogger is pretty clear with both his intent and method, and it obviously matched up with our discussion well. The problem was that his method, although he did a thorough job, did not create a very accurate way of ranking offenses. After some thought I decided that he had ended up ranking the greatest fantasy football offense of the last thirty years, and had done a pretty good job of it. So even when you find rankings that match up with what you are looking for they might not be reliable. I have a posting of how I broke down his method and the other criteria posters were using to rank offenses against the one that Inside the Numbers uses. Looking at great offenses -> [...]